The meeting between a middle power and a great power was a high-risk, meticulously planned diplomatic operation.
“You are now connected to Air Force One,” a White House operator said as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaned into a speakerphone in a short video released from 10 Downing Street on Saturday.
“Congratulations, Mr. Prime Minister,” President Biden exclaimed on his way to a campaign rally in Wisconsin. “What an incredible victory!”
The two leaders spoke warmly about the importance of the “special relationship” between the UK and the US, their shared commitment to defending Ukraine and an upcoming meeting: Starmer will travel to Washington on Tuesday, where Biden will host a NATO summit.
Since Barack Obama took office, the White House and Downing Street have not been simultaneously in the hands of center-left parties. After years of tensions over Brexit, Northern Ireland, and Britain’s dashed hopes for a trade deal, this alignment could signal a new era of harmony in transatlantic relations.
However, this era may be short-lived. The US election in four months could bring Donald J. Trump, who had a tense relationship with Britain’s center-right leader Theresa May, back to the presidency, and could be even more difficult with a center-left leader.
Navigating Britain’s relationship with one of its closest allies during a time of acute uncertainty will be a delicate task for Starmer, diplomats and analysts say. He faces a Democratic president on the defensive, even within his own party, and the spectre of a Republican replacement who would disagree with him on key issues, from Ukraine to climate change.
A Labour landslide would generally be good news for Biden. British voters have a habit of predicting political changes in the United States, whether it was Margaret Thatcher’s election a year before Ronald Reagan or the 2016 Brexit vote five months before Trump’s election.
But Starmer’s victory, while resounding, came with caveats, not least a strong showing from a rebel, anti-immigration party, Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, a vocal Trump ally. And Biden has his own challenges, which are more about actuarial tables than political cycles.
“For this administration, it’s all about who the Democratic nominee is, whether Donald Trump gets elected or not, what the policy of the United States is, regardless of who gets elected,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the US and Americas program at Chatham House, the British think tank.
Starmer, he said, will also have to consider how to respond to the US election results, especially if they are close and do not go Trump’s way. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Biden on his 2020 victory, a result Trump continues to dispute without evidence, Trump reacted with anger and resentment toward Netanyahu.
Given these scenarios, diplomats prefer to focus on what Starmer might achieve with Biden in the next six and a half months. The two are united on issues such as military support for Ukraine, aggressive government action to curb climate change and closer ties between Britain and the European Union.
The latter could actually change the tone, analysts said, given that transatlantic tensions over Brexit predate the Brexit referendum. Obama famously warned Britons that they would be “at the back of the queue” for a trade deal if they voted to leave the European Union.
“Political relations have been strained by the UK’s decision to leave the EU, not least because of the risk Brexit has posed to the smooth implementation of the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland,” said David Manning, who was Britain’s last ambassador to Washington under Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair. The Good Friday Agreement was the 1998 deal that ended decades of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland.
“This is an opportunity for a new beginning,” he said.
Starmer will be accompanied to Washington by his foreign secretary, David Lammy, who has close ties to Obama through Harvard Law School, which they both attended. He and his boss do not have high hopes for a trade deal, given the Biden administration’s lack of interest in such deals.
But Starmer could ease lingering tensions over Northern Ireland, which has remained embroiled in often hostile negotiations with Brussels over the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU.
The issue has angered Biden, who proudly celebrates his Irish heritage. He has regularly warned previous British governments against actions that would jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement.
On his first visit to Belfast since becoming prime minister on Monday, Starmer described Labour’s victory as a reset for Northern Ireland and promised a “respectful and collaborative” relationship.
Mary Lou McDonald, leader of Sinn Fein, the Irish nationalist party, said the difference between the Labour and Conservative governments was like “daylight and darkness”.
Even under Starmer’s predecessor, Rishi Sunak, tensions over Northern Ireland had eased somewhat. Sunak struck a deal with the European Union last year on trade arrangements for the North.
A greater source of tension, analysts say, could come from issues such as trade ties with China, where the Biden administration has pushed Britain and other allies to take a more combative approach.
“Britain needs economic growth,” Vinjamuri said. “Choosing between the United States and China is not a good position for the UK to be in.”
If Trump were elected to a second term, analysts said, he would not care about Northern Ireland but would be put off by Starmer’s efforts to move closer to Europe. To the extent Trump had a warm relationship with a prime minister, it was with Boris Johnson, who gleefully butted heads with the European Union and bore little resemblance to the president’s brand of populism.
That doesn’t mean British and American leaders of opposing parties can’t work together. After all, Obama issued his Brexit warning at the request of David Cameron, a Conservative prime minister who called the referendum but campaigned against leaving the European Union. And Blair famously supported George W. Bush’s war in Iraq, with Bush even relying on him to consult with other leaders on his behalf.
“Bush found it useful to be able to take the temperature with Blair,” Manning said. “It’s hard to imagine Trump wanting that kind of relationship, but a lot depends on what kind of approach he would take toward America’s traditional transatlantic partners.”